For several weeks now there has been a fairly strong signal for a lengthy period of cold weather, such as we have experienced for some years (in fact it has been a long time coming, each week the forecasts have tended to slow the change by a few days.
However, apart from the odd ‘flash in the pan’ period of severe cold such as we had at the end of February 2018, a prolonged period of cold such has not occurred since December 2010 is now almost certain.
From Wednesday (7th), temperatures will drop: being close to the winter solstice, after persistent overnight frosts, daytime air temperatures will only peak at or just above freezing point, with almost all terrain permanently frozen.
As with most spells occurring in predominantly northerly winds, Galloway will be frequently fine and clear, but as small areas of low pressure move southwards, occasionally winds diverting around the shelter provided by the mountains of Scotland will allow an hour or two of snow.
The risk of substantial snow is not nil, but at this stage small. (In fact on the lower ground (where most people live) slightly warmer air near any precipitation may result in temporary thawing.
At present, the forecast is that the air will not be as cold as in 2010, so we probably will not see extreme temperatures. Nevertheless, frost and where runoff from saturated lands continues, there will be patches of ice, exacerbated after even small snowfall.
These conditions may well be of prominent concern for those struggling over the cost of heating.
At present around the weekend of the 17/18th (perhaps just before), there are signs of warmer conditions edging in.
It should be noted that in last years when cold has set in during December following warm southerly wind in the autumn, a colder than normal winter follows – thus the risk of further cold weather this winter is relatively high.
