London, UK — The British Army could face severe depletion within “six months to a year” in the event of a large-scale conflict, Veterans Minister Al Carns has warned, underscoring the urgent need to rebuild the nation’s reserve forces.
Speaking at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) conference in London, Carns drew attention to the staggering casualty rates in Ukraine, where Russian forces are reportedly losing approximately 1,500 soldiers daily, including those killed and injured.
He emphasized that such resilience to sustain heavy losses highlights a critical gap in the UK’s defense preparedness.
Carns, a former Royal Marine colonel turned politician, cautioned that Britain’s ability to maintain operational capacity in a major conflict, particularly as part of a multinational coalition, would be severely compromised under current conditions.
“Professional armies start wars, but civilians end them,” Carns remarked, citing Ukraine’s extensive reliance on volunteers and reservists to bolster its forces amid ongoing hostilities.
Russia’s Resilience as a Stark Warning
Russia’s capacity to endure massive casualties and transition to successive armies demonstrates a strategic depth that the UK currently lacks, Carns explained.
He pointed out that Moscow is already deploying its third iteration of forces in Ukraine, a stark reminder of the challenges posed by a sustained conflict. “The lesson for Britain is clear: we must be prepared to generate manpower quickly in a crisis,” he said.
The Minister warned that the British Army’s limited ability to sustain losses reflects broader structural issues, including the historic underinvestment in reserve forces.
For decades, the UK has prioritized resources for its regular armed services—the full-time Army, Royal Navy, and Royal Air Force—at the expense of its reserves.
The Erosion of Britain’s Reserve Forces
During the Cold War, Britain maintained a robust reserve system, with a well-trained strategic reserve that underwent annual training and remained on standby for redeployment.
However, these practices were gradually phased out as the focus shifted to maintaining a smaller, more agile standing military.
Today, the British reserve forces are divided into two primary categories: active reservists, who train regularly and are readily deployable, and the strategic reserve, comprising former service personnel eligible for recall after leaving active duty.
Yet, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) now lacks precise records of the strategic reserve’s size, location, or availability, raising concerns about its effectiveness in a crisis.
“The strategic reserve, once a cornerstone of our national defense, has been neglected to the point where its readiness is questionable,” Carns lamented.
Call for a “New Deal” for Reserves
Revitalizing the reserves will require significant investment and a cultural shift to restore public recognition of the importance of national defense, Carns said.
He urged the UK to adopt a “new deal” for its reserve forces, ensuring they are better equipped, trained, and integrated with the regular military.
“A larger standing army is not the answer. What we need is an enhanced ability to expand force capacity rapidly in emergencies,” he argued.
The proposed reforms would prioritize expanding the active reserve, focusing on volunteers who can be swiftly mobilized.
This would also involve addressing critical gaps in equipment, such as body armor, weapons, and fighting vehicles, which are currently lacking for many reservists.
Additionally, Carns advocated for rebuilding the strategic reserve by re-establishing clear records and offering incentives to former service personnel to remain available for recall.
“We need to know who they are, where they are, and whether they are ready to serve again,” he said.
Learning from NATO Allies
Carns pointed to NATO allies such as Estonia and Norway as examples of nations that effectively integrate reservists into their defense strategies.
These countries maintain extensive reserve systems and conduct regular large-scale exercises to ensure readiness.
The UK’s current reliance on its professional forces, while effective in peacetime, leaves it vulnerable in prolonged or high-intensity conflicts.
“We must align our approach with NATO standards and place greater emphasis on the role of reservists,” Carns said.
High Stakes Amid Global Uncertainty
The conference came amid rising geopolitical tensions and increasing demands on NATO members to strengthen their defense capabilities.
With the war in Ukraine showing no signs of abating, the lessons from the conflict are resonating across Europe.
Carns highlighted the importance of learning from Ukraine’s ability to mobilize civilian volunteers to sustain its war effort.
He noted that while Russia’s losses are staggering, its ability to absorb and replace personnel underscores the necessity for Britain to plan for similar contingencies.
“Freedom is not free,” Carns reminded attendees, urging the public to recognize the sacrifices required to maintain national security.
Defense Review Set to Outline Reforms
A major defense review scheduled for publication in the spring is expected to address the challenges facing the UK’s armed forces, including the state of its reserves.
Carns expressed hope that the review would include concrete proposals for revitalizing the reserve system, calling it a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” to strengthen Britain’s defense infrastructure.
The review is likely to propose increased funding for training, equipment, and recruitment efforts, as well as initiatives to enhance public engagement with the military.
Carns also hinted at potential measures to incentivize reservist service, such as tax breaks or educational benefits for volunteers.
Public Support Crucial for Success
The success of these reforms will depend on public buy-in, Carns acknowledged. He called for a national conversation about the role of reserves in modern defense strategy, emphasizing that their importance extends beyond military readiness.
“Reservists bring unique skills and perspectives that enhance our armed forces. They are not just a backup; they are an integral part of our defense strategy,” he said.
A Race Against Time
As global instability continues to grow, the need for a resilient and adaptable military force has never been more urgent.
Carns warned that failing to address the deficiencies in Britain’s reserves could leave the country ill-prepared for future conflicts.
“The stakes are high. We must act now to ensure that our armed forces are ready for whatever challenges lie ahead,” he concluded.
With the proposed defense review on the horizon, all eyes will be on the government to see whether it delivers the comprehensive reforms needed to secure Britain’s future.
