Southern England is poised to experience a surge in temperatures this week, with some areas expected to hit 27°C (81°F), marking the warmest April temperatures recorded in the region since 2018.
The sudden warmth, which is part of a widespread shift in weather patterns across the UK, has raised concerns about the ongoing drought conditions and the heightened risk of wildfires.
High pressure is gradually building over the UK, bringing with it sunshine and clear skies that will help temperatures soar. Much of England and Wales is already experiencing temperatures between 19°C and 24°C, while Scotland and Northern Ireland are slightly cooler at 16°C to 19°C, with some cloud cover.
The warmth is forecast to peak on Wednesday or Thursday, with southern and eastern areas of England, including London, the Home Counties, and Cambridgeshire, seeing the highest temperatures of the year so far.
Although the temperature spike is noteworthy, it does not qualify as a heatwave in meteorological terms. According to the UK’s heatwave criteria, three consecutive days of temperatures exceeding a certain threshold are required to declare a heatwave.
In the case of southern England, the heatwave threshold is 28°C, which is unlikely to be reached this week. Still, the significant rise in temperatures, which is expected to be up to 10°C above the seasonal average, has led to warnings about high UV levels, particularly for outdoor enthusiasts.
This warm spell follows a sunny and relatively dry spring, with rainfall levels significantly below average across many areas. In central southern England, residents have seen only a fifth of the typical rainfall expected since March, with parts of North Yorkshire recording around a quarter of the normal rainfall.
These dry conditions have left the soil parched, river levels low, and led to concerns about potential water shortages in the coming months. As temperatures rise and rainfall remains scarce, the UK faces an increasing risk of wildfires.
Fire services are on high alert, with some parts of the country already seeing more land burned by wildfires this year than in any previous year in over a decade. Satellite data has shown a marked increase in wildfire activity, particularly in southern and central regions.
The dry weather has also exacerbated pollution concerns, as the calm, sunny conditions are conducive to the buildup of pollutants in the atmosphere.
Air quality forecasts from the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and the Met Office indicate moderate pollution levels in many parts of the UK, particularly in England and Wales, by mid-week.
Despite the potential risks, experts highlight that warm spells like this are not unusual for April. In fact, the highest April temperature ever recorded in the UK was 29.4°C in London on April 16, 1949.
However, with the ongoing impact of climate change, such early-season heatwaves are likely to become more frequent, especially as spring continues to emerge as the fastest-warming season in the UK.
While many will enjoy the sunshine, it is important for residents and visitors to stay vigilant about the potential impacts of the prolonged dry weather.
Fire services, local authorities, and environmental agencies are urging people to be mindful of the heightened risks associated with the combination of dry conditions, high temperatures, and strong sunshine.
As the UK experiences this brief but intense warm spell, it serves as a reminder of the growing challenges posed by changing weather patterns and the importance of managing both environmental and health risks in the face of such extremes.
