LONDON — Storm Éowyn, described by the Met Office as one of the most exceptional storms of the decade, wreaked havoc across the UK with winds reaching 100mph (160km/h) in Scotland. As the fifth named storm of the season, it brought widespread damage, travel disruption, and tragically, claimed two lives.
Even as the UK reeled from its impact, another powerful system, Storm Herminia, followed close behind, extending the stretch of turbulent weather into the start of the week. Now, as February approaches, meteorologists warn that the stormy conditions are likely to persist.
Record Storm Season Continues
Since the Met Office began naming storms in 2015, the 2023/24 storm season has been the most active yet, recording 12 named storms so far—reaching as far as “L” for Lilian in the alphabetical sequence. In contrast, the previous season saw only two named storms, highlighting the vast variability in annual storm activity.
According to experts, the number of storms each year is influenced by broader meteorological patterns across the globe, making direct comparisons to previous years challenging. However, this season’s activity suggests the UK is facing one of its stormiest winters in recent history.
More Storms on the Horizon
With winter meteorologically defined as December through February, the UK has experienced a mix of extreme conditions, including fierce storms and an intense cold snap.
On January 11, temperatures plummeted to -18.9°C in Altnaharra, Highland, marking the coldest night in the UK in 15 years. The frigid conditions led to widespread travel disruptions due to snow and ice.
Despite this, long-range forecasts indicate that the remaining winter period will lean towards stormier and wetter weather. The Met Office predicts an active jet stream—a fast-moving current of air in the upper atmosphere—will continue to drive low-pressure systems across northwest Europe, increasing the risk of storms throughout February.
The latest three-month forecast from the Met Office suggests an increased likelihood of wet and windy conditions persisting, with a greater risk of ‘storm clustering’, where multiple storms strike in quick succession. BBC Weather’s forecast provider, DTN, echoes these concerns, warning that disruptive wind events could be more frequent, particularly in February.
Milder Temperatures, but Few Cold Spells
One notable effect of the active jet stream is the likelihood of warmer-than-average temperatures. The prevailing winds, originating from the southwest, are expected to bring milder air across the UK. While occasional cold interludes cannot be ruled out, experts say there is no indication of a sustained or widespread cold spell.
January saw a slight dip below normal temperatures due to the earlier cold snap, but December was unseasonably warm, with overnight temperatures averaging 5°C above normal. February is now forecast to be 2.5 times more likely to be milder than average, according to Met Office projections.
What to Expect Heading into Spring?
As February transitions into March, the UK may experience a classic case of the weather proverb “in like a lion, out like a lamb”. Early spring could continue the trend of stormy, wet conditions, though northern regions are expected to bear the brunt of the weather. Southern parts of the UK may see a shift towards drier and calmer conditions as high pressure builds.
With milder weather on the horizon, signs of spring are expected to emerge sooner than usual, with increased plant growth and rising temperatures. However, with storm activity still a looming threat, residents are advised to stay updated on weather warnings as the season progresses.
