Considerable weather uncertainty in a turbulent mobile pattern is expected in the upcoming Christmas week across the Northern part of the United Kingdom.
The synoptic chart today explains why there’s uncertainty. As expected, last night’s GFS chart showing a Wintry spell has not been supported by the ECM or Anomalies, But they do support a cold spell – and nothing is off the table yet.
The breakdown arrives from the Southwest on Sunday; then we have a stormy few days where a named storm is certainly possible, if not probable. But it’s a mess, although, after a mild day or so, it will cool down again to average or below average.
A very cold but crisp, sparkling sunny day for most, with light winds and snow showers yet again for Northern Ireland and Northern Scotland, with some down the East Coast. Another very hard frost tonight.
More clouds around, with a light breeze, so bright, dry, still very cold with temperatures hovering around freezing. Some snow in Northern Ireland and Central Scotland.
Raw, after another hard frost, cloudier with a strengthening breeze. A few snow showers in the Northwest.
The rain, sleet and snow arrive early in the West and sweep to most places by midday. Current predictions suggest that snow will be confined to the higher ground of Wales, the Peak District and the Pennines. This is by no means certain. So becoming wet and windy, temperatures slowly rise.
Stormy! strong winds, heavy, blustery showers, sunnier spells, milder.
Tuesday & Wednesday
Complete uncertainty about the detail as the models and even the runs don’t agree. Expect strong conditions, with heavy, blustery showers that will turn Wintry over the hills. It will become colder again and eventually brighter with sunny spells. Night frosts return.
Thursday – Christmas day
Calming down, cold and frosty, snow showers over Northern areas, the south staying dry. Storms die out, and we get a calm (normal cold) run up to Christmas day. Temperatures may pick up to a nearer average by then.
But there’s great uncertainty here; things could well change; this is a mobile situation, so what’s described here is only the current plan, not the result.