The Actual Weather named Facebook page is known for its weather prediction across the United Kingdom.
Recently the official Facebook handle of Actual Weather shared an update regarding the weather in the New year.
While sharing an update, the Actual Weather named Facebook wrote:-
Well, as this current blocking that we have been reporting on for two months is weakening, what lies ahead? Will this be a “front-loaded Winter” (cold December mild the rest), or was this blocking/cold spell just a pre-cursor of greater things to come?
Last week we warned about writing off Winter too soon and listed the Winters that didn’t establish properly in December, and that still applies! This December was shaping up to be like 2010 and 1981 but has failed by about 600 miles to deliver. We are that close. Even the great freezes of 1947 and 1963 went after Christmas.
So what may lie ahead?
The Stratosphere is unlikely to deliver an SSW anytime soon; the SPV is currently holding firm.
As things stand, there is no sign of an SSW, although the experts still think it’s likely, just not as soon as they previously expected. Of course, there might not be one at all; there wasn’t in the 1990s! And even if there was only 2/3 affected us.
The MJO doesn’t look strong, so despite some experts thinking it will assist something – I need more convincing.
The Anomalies
The attached charts suggest a weakening of the Northern Blocking, but I’ve also made a case for the block to build and strengthen over Scandinavia by mid-January.
SUMMARY
Whilst the current blocking is expected to weaken in the short term, the long-term outlook remains one of blocking. High pressure to our Northern latitude.
There is NO sign of a Tropospheric Polar Vortex developing in the mid-North Atlantic, driving a mild, wet Winter, so the temperatures are likely to be average at best, but below moderate/cold is expected.
There is no strong signal now of a good Winter spell other than a few odd cold days here and there until Mid January at the earliest.
All we can predict is what is “most likely.”
– Most cold Winters are most likely to establish after Christmas
– Most cold Decembers are most likely to be followed by cold Winters
– Northern Blocking is most likely to remain a feature into the future
– SSWs are most likely in January and February
– As things stand, a below-average Winter is most likely or more likely than a mild one.
