Richard Hughes, chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), has resigned following the premature publication of a sensitive Budget document, a failure the watchdog branded the most serious in its 15-year history.
In his resignation letter, Hughes said he took “full responsibility” for the errors that allowed the OBR’s economic forecasts to go live before Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her Budget. He acknowledged that the incident had damaged the organisation’s credibility and disrupted the government’s fiscal announcement.
The OBR, which independently evaluates the health of the UK economy, plays a crucial role in shaping public understanding of government spending, borrowing, and taxation. Its early publication confirmed several Budget measures—including a three-year freeze on income tax and National Insurance thresholds—before Reeves could formally present them to Parliament.
The unintended disclosure threw the Treasury’s tightly choreographed Budget day into disarray, adding another layer of controversy to a financial plan already under intense political scrutiny.
Report Says OBR’s Reputation “Heavily Damaged”
An investigation led by Ciaran Martin, former chief executive of the National Cyber Security Centre, concluded that the leak, though accidental, inflicted “heavy damage on the OBR’s reputation.” The report found no evidence of foreign interference, cybercrime, or internal collusion.
Instead, it revealed the forecasts were accessible through a hidden URL from 11:30 to 12:08 on Budget day. During that period, the link was accessed 43 times from 32 devices. One early attempt to reach the file was logged at 05:16.
Martin’s findings pointed to long-standing weaknesses in the OBR’s publication system, including similar early access to its March forecasts earlier in the year. The watchdog, which uses WordPress for publishing, relied on software “more suited to a small or medium company” than to handling market-sensitive documents.
The early release stemmed from two main technical failures: a plug-in that bypassed login requirements and an incorrectly configured directory that allowed files to be downloaded directly.
Political Fallout: Reeves Accused of Misleading Public
The error intensified political tensions surrounding the Budget. Critics had already accused Chancellor Rachel Reeves of misleading the public about the state of public finances after she hinted at potential tax increases, citing weak productivity forecasts.
However, the OBR later clarified that falling productivity projections were offset by higher income expectations, increasing government receipts. This revelation prompted opposition figures to claim Reeves’ pre-Budget messaging was intentionally bleak.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer defended Reeves, insisting the government’s commitment to reducing borrowing meant revenue increases were inevitable. He rejected accusations that the chancellor had misled voters.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch seized on Hughes’ resignation, arguing that Reeves was “using the chair of the OBR as her human shield” to deflect blame for Budget chaos.
A “Shame” for Hughes and the OBR
Economist Paul Johnson, former director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said Hughes’ departure was unsurprising given the severity of the mistake. He praised Hughes as a “robust and effective” leader and called the situation “a shame for Richard Hughes and a shame for the OBR.”
Hughes had only recently begun his second five-year term, having been reappointed in May. He previously served as director of fiscal policy at the Treasury and spent eight years at the International Monetary Fund as division chief in fiscal affairs.
His sudden exit leaves the OBR without its top figure at a moment of heightened political sensitivity and public scrutiny of Britain’s fiscal management.
Government Response and Next Steps
Reeves thanked Hughes for his service, saying he had “led the Office for Budget Responsibility over the past five years” with dedication. Treasury officials said a minister would respond formally to the report “in due course.”
The episode has reopened debate about the technological resilience and independence of Britain’s budget watchdog. The OBR obtained an exemption in 2013 that allowed it to bypass the government’s more secure publishing platform—an exception intended to protect its autonomy.
But the investigation found that the watchdog did adopt Treasury systems in other areas, such as secure email, raising questions about whether its web publishing practices lagged behind its operational safeguards.
Hughes said he believed the OBR could “quickly regain the confidence and esteem” it had earned once the report’s recommendations were fully implemented. Still, he stressed that stepping down was necessary to allow the organisation to “move on from this regrettable incident.”
A Watchdog Under Pressure
The combination of technical vulnerability, political friction, and shaken public trust has revived a broader debate: has Britain’s budget watchdog become too powerful, or has it simply become too vulnerable?
As Parliament prepares to scrutinise the Budget further, the OBR faces a critical moment in reaffirming its independence and authority. With Hughes no longer set to appear before the Treasury Select Committee, MPs will now seek answers from other senior officials. The search for his successor comes at a time when the nation’s economic future—and the credibility of its fiscal oversight—hangs in the balance.
