As the debate around TikTok’s security risks intensifies, analysts predict that the US ban on the app could set a precedent for allied nations and beyond, potentially spelling the end of the popular platform’s global presence.
TikTok, owned by the Chinese tech company ByteDance, was banned in the United States after lawmakers raised national security concerns over its ties to the Chinese government—a link that ByteDance denies.
With incoming President Trump signaling his opposition to the ban and vowing to reverse it, the future of TikTok in the US remains uncertain. However, experts argue that if the ban holds, other countries may soon follow suit.
Emily Taylor, Editor of the Cyber Policy Journal, draws comparisons between TikTok and previous instances where Chinese and Russian tech companies were ousted on national security grounds.
She points to the US-led campaigns against companies like Huawei and Kaspersky, which were accused of being too close to their respective governments. Despite accusations, no concrete evidence has been presented to prove the security threats posed by these companies.
The US’s crackdown on Kaspersky, a Russian cybersecurity firm, in 2017 exemplifies the potential ripple effect of the TikTok ban. Despite the lack of definitive evidence, the US government imposed a nationwide ban, citing concerns over alleged Kremlin ties and hacking activities.
Following suit, other countries, including the UK, imposed similar restrictions on the antivirus software. Although Kaspersky claimed the decision was politically motivated, its usage dramatically declined across multiple nations.
Huawei, a Chinese telecommunications giant, faced similar treatment as the US accused it of enabling espionage through its 5G infrastructure.
Despite these claims remaining largely unproven, the US lobbied its allies, convincing countries like the UK and Australia to follow its lead in banning Huawei’s equipment from their networks.
A similar pattern has emerged with TikTok. So far, the app has been banned from government devices in multiple countries, including those in the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance (US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand).
Canada has even halted TikTok’s operations, citing national security concerns, while several European nations, such as France, Germany, and Belgium, have followed suit with partial bans or restrictions.
The influence of the US, especially on its allies, is a significant factor in the spread of such bans.
Ciaran Martin, former head of the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre, acknowledged that when the US makes a national security decision, countries like the UK often follow, whether directly or indirectly.
However, he also noted that the situation with TikTok could differ due to President Trump’s evolving stance on the app.
While the UK government has stated there are no current plans to ban TikTok, its position remains under review. Some officials, like Darren Jones, argue that unless a direct security threat to national interests is identified, the UK will not mimic the US approach.
If the US ban on TikTok becomes a global trend, the app’s business model could face significant challenges. Losing its 170 million US-based users would be a major blow, especially as TikTok’s revenue depends on user engagement, advertising, and TikTok Shop purchases.
The app has already been banned in countries like India and Pakistan, which represent large untapped markets. However, unlike Kaspersky and Huawei, TikTok may struggle to thrive in regions such as Africa or the Middle East without its US user base.
As TikTok braces for its future in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, its ability to maintain its global dominance is increasingly uncertain. Should the ban spread across the globe, the app may face a slow decline, unable to recover from its loss of key markets.
